CRISIS GROUP M-E REPORT: OIL FOR SOIL

OIL FOR SOIL: TOWARD A GRAND BARGAIN
ON IRAQ AND THE KURDS
Middle East Report N°80 – 28 October 2008


TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i
I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 1
II. THE DISPUTED TERRITORIES CONUNDRUM ...................................................... 5
A. TERRITORIES IN DISPUTE ..........................................................................................5
B. A NEW UN ROLE................................................................................................................7
C. RESPONSES TO UNAMI’S PROPOSALS........................................................................11
III. ESCALATING CONFLICT OVER OIL...................................................................... 14
A. DEVELOPING KURDISTAN’S OIL WEALTH..................................................................................15
B. OIL IN KIRKUK AND OTHER DISPUTED TERRITORIES .................................................................19
C. THE BATTLE OVER THE HYDROCARBONS LAW..........................................................................23
IV. POSSIBLE COMPROMISE SOLUTIONS.................................................................26
A. A TERRITORIAL COMPROMISE ..............................................................................26
B. A GRAND BARGAIN ......................................................................................................27
V. CONCLUSION................................................................................................................ 32
APPENDICES
A. MAP OF IRAQ..................................................................................................................34
B. MAP OF DISPUTED TERRITORIES CLAIMED BY THE KRG.................................................................35
C. MAP OF OIL AND GAS CONCESSIONS IN THE KURDISTAN REGION....................................................36
D. MAP OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN THE KURDISTAN REGION AND DISPUTED TERRITORIES..........37
E. MAP OF GOVERNORATES AND DISTRICTS ....................38
F. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ...............39
G. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA......................40
H. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES...............................................42

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