Robert Tollast talks with Iraq expert Joel Wing about
the outlook for the country in 2013.
The picture that emerges is a Nouri
al-Maliki who seems increasingly secure to do what he wants given the US desire
to put the Iraq experience behind it.
Iraq in 2013: A Discussion With Joel
Wingglobal-politics.co.uk
Iraq in 2013: A Discussion With Joel Wing
From Global Politics
This time last year, I interviewed Iraq writer Joel
Wing whose work has been cited in reports by leading think tanks on both sides
of the Atlantic, as well as publications such as the New York Times, the
Guardian, and countless specialist journals and blogs. His own blog, Musings on
Iraq, is an exhaustive resource for anyone interested in modern Iraq, and his
reporting over the years has made him one of the foremost chroniclers of the
Iraq conflict and its aftermath. It was therefore a great pleasure to have the
chance to conduct another interview looking at the outlook for Iraq in 2013.
Nouri al-Maliki: A dictator who takes “unprecedented
measures”?
RT: This time last year we saw the arrest of Maliki
rival and Iraqiya politician, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. Now there has
been a raid against the security guards of Finance Minister al-Issawi. Some
initial reports suggested over 150 may have been arrested. Again, the timing is
very suspect. With Hashemi, Maliki had a long time to arrest him but waited
until the US had departed to order the raid. Likewise with Issawi, charges of
terrorism had been around for a long time, but the raid to arrest his security
only came after President Talibani, widely considered a mediating force in
Iraqi politics, was taken seriously ill.
The latest crackdown comes on top of a long list of
Iraqi state institutions that Maliki has targeted such as the armed forces, the
Central Bank of Iraq, the electoral commission, the judiciary, and the
integrity commission, in what Michael Knights calls “a culture of direct
control.” Let’s imagine that by pushing the disputed territories/Kurdish oil
dispute to the limit, presiding over the corruption riddled $4 billion arms
deal with Russia and arresting Issawi (testing his nationalist Sunni supporters
in Anbar) a successful no confidence vote is held against Maliki next year.
Maliki has promised “unprecedented measures” against anyone who backs such a
vote. But if he continues down this path, political opposition is going to
grow. Are we going to see Maliki take more “unprecedented measures” in 2013?
JW: There were varying numbers, but now it looks like
just 10 members of Issawi’s security were actually detained. There appears to
be a political deal at work today to resolve the issue, which to me seems like
it was just an intimidation tactic taken by PM Maliki against Issawi to let him
know that he could be arrested as well in the future.
Some members of Iraqiya have called for a new no
confidence vote as a result, but they don’t have the votes. Iraqiya is a party
in name only these days shown by the fact that it will run as 3-4 different
lists in next year’s provincial elections. Parts of the list also want to
preserve their positions in government, and will not threaten that by going
after Maliki. Not only that, but they need the Sadr votes in parliament to get
enough to remove Maliki, and Sadr only talks about the prime minister he
doesn’t take any real action against him.
As for the premier, he’s been doing these things since
2008, so I see no reason why he’d stop in the future as no one has been able to
stand up to him. He’s been a master at using carrots and sticks to divide up
the other parties and maintain and expand his position. Until the other parties
start to see beyond their own personal political power and profits they get out
of being part of the government through corruption I doubt there will be any
real change in Iraq’s political situation.
