samedi 15 septembre 2007


Iraq genocide: a new ORB poll
Gabriele Zamparini, The Cat's Dream

September 14, 2007
The Los Angeles Times published today:
According to the ORB poll, a survey of 1,461 adults suggested that the total number slain during more than four years of war was more than 1.2 million.

ORB said it drew its conclusion from responses to the question about those living under one roof: "How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003?"Based on Iraq's estimated number of households -- 4,050,597 -- it said the 1.2 million figure was reasonable.

This is the complete ORB press release:

More than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered since 2003 invasionIn the week in which General Patraeus reports back to US Congress on the impact the recent 'surge' is having in Iraq, a new poll reveals that more than 1,000,000 Iraqi citizens have been murdered since the invasion took place in 2003. Previous estimates, most noticeably the one published in the Lancet in October 2006, suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths).

These findings come from a poll released today by O.R.B., the British polling agency that have been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005. In conjunction with their Iraqi fieldwork agency a representative sample of 1,461 adults aged 18+ answered the following question:-Q How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof.
None 78%
One death 16%
Two deaths 5%
Threedeaths 1%
Four+ deaths 0.002%

Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003.

Detailed analysis (which is available on our website) indicates that almost one in two households in Baghdad have lost a family member, significantly higher than in any other area of the country. The governorates of Diyala (42%) and Ninewa (35%) were next.

The poll also questioned the surviving relatives on the method in which their loved ones were killed. It reveals that 48% died from a gunshot wound, 20% from the impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial bombardment, 6% as a result of an accident and 6% from another blast/ordnance.

This is significant because more often that not it is car bombs and aerial bombardments that make the news – with gunshots rarely in the headlines.
As well as a murder rate that now exceeds the Rwanda genocide from 1994 (800,000 murdered), not only have more than one million been injured but our poll calculates that of the millions of Iraqis that have fled their neighbourhoods, 52% have moved within Iraq but 48% have crossed its borders, with Syria taking the brunt of refugees.

And for those left in Iraq, although 81% may describe the availability of basic groceries such as bread and fresh vegetables as "very/fairly good", more than one in two (54%) consider them to be "expensive".

Note:The opinion poll was conducted by O.R.B. and the survey details are as follows:
• Results are based face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 1720 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq.
• The standard margin of error on the sample size is +2.4%
• The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq. For security reasons Karbala and Al Anbar were not included. Irbil was excluded as the authorities refused our field team a permit.
• Interviews conducted August 12th – 19th 2007.
• Full results and data tabulations are available at
• O.R.B. are full members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules

Johnny Heald Munqeth DaghirManaging Director, ORB Managing Director, Baghdad+44 207 611 5270 +962 79967222907973 600308

Commenting on this new study, Juan Cole writes: "The combination of the two, however, makes the Lancet study's conclusions seem unassailable and if anything conservative."

I could bet those $ 1,000,000 I don't have that many people are already at work to discredit this new study as they have been doing since the first Lancet was published in 2004.

Iraq Body Count has had a paramount role in that shameful propaganda campaign aimed at making people ignore the scale of that carnage we all are responsible for.To question this propaganda campaign and to object to IBC use at least on the left and within the anti-war movement, I am now known as a "really quite contemptable" person.


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